BlackRidge Executive Evidence Guide · 2026
Promotion readiness is a judgment about the next role, so promote on evidence that looks like the work ahead, not on past performance alone. Three simple steps, name it, prove it and back it, help you give your best people a promotion they can win at.
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16 pages · Executive evidence guide
At a glance
Promote for the job ahead, not the job they’re in. Remember it this way: name it, prove it, back it.
Look for proof that looks like the new job: real behavior, a stretch assignment and the same questions for everyone.
Want help building that proof for a specific role? That’s exactly what the Leadership Readiness Diagnostic is for.
Earning and preparing are different judgments, answered by different evidence. One reads a record. The other reads the responsibility about to change hands.
BlackRidge builds the second kind of evidence, around the transition a leader is making. When the role changes, what leadership requires changes too, so every new role deserves new development.
This report covers the first of four transitions.
Promotion readiness is a judgment about the next role. Your best people have earned a shot, and they deserve a promotion they can win at. So look for proof that they can do the new work, not just the work they already do so well.
Strong performers deliver, solve hard problems and earn trust. That’s worth celebrating. But a promotion changes the job itself. The surest way to set someone up to shine is to see them succeed at the new work before the title arrives, then stand behind them once it does.
Remember it this wayName it. Prove it. Back it.
Three findings that help you get promotion readiness right, and give every candidate a fair shot.
A study of salespeople at 131 companies found the best sellers were the most likely to be promoted, yet they tended to become weaker managers. Those who had helped teammates did better (Benson, Li & Shue, 2019).
Across 43 studies and 11,577 workers, prior experience barely predicted later job performance: a correlation of .06, where 0 means no link and 1 means a perfect one (Van Iddekinge et al., 2019).
Structured interviews, where every candidate answers the same job-related questions, had the highest average validity of any hiring method, at .42 (Sackett et al., 2022).
Step 1 · Name it
Every promotion is a brand-new job at a new level. When you name what’s different from their current role, you know exactly what kind of proof to look for.
List the calls they’ll own that someone else owns today.
Name the people, teams or managers who will look to them for direction.
Describe the impact when things go well, and what it costs when they don’t. Together, your three answers show what proof the next role requires.
Step 2 · Prove it
The best evidence is the person doing a version of the new work, at the next level, and doing it well. Here’s what to trust most.
She is strategic.No behavior, no situation and no link to the new job.
In two cross-team decisions, she spotted the effects on other teams, stated her assumptions and changed the plan when new facts came in.Specific, observed and tied to the work ahead.
Step 3 · Back it
Whether the answer is “ready now” or “not yet,” your job is the same: stand behind your person and set them up to succeed.
Clear the old work off their plate, give them the authority the job needs and tell the team plainly what’s changing.
Give the new manager time and honest feedback. Ask what’s working, what feels hard and what help would make the biggest difference.
Name the one or two skills to build and give real projects and tasks to practice them, with feedback along the way.
A clear date turns “not yet” into “soon,” and keeps a great career moving forward.
04 · Common questions
Quick answers to what leaders ask most.
Promotion readiness is how well prepared someone is for the specific demands of the next role. You judge it with evidence that looks like that future work, not by past performance alone.
Name what changes in the new job, then look for proof: real behavior on the job, a stretch assignment and the same structured questions for every candidate.
It’s a great sign, and it’s worth celebrating. It isn’t proof on its own, so check for the skills the new job needs (Benson, Li & Shue, 2019).
Make a plan together, give real projects to practice the new skills and set a date to look again. Handled this way, “not yet” fuels real career growth.
05 · Research and sources
A practical guide built on research, meant to help leaders make a fair, confident call.
A simple way to judge promotion readiness, drawing on BlackRidge’s working papers and the studies listed below.
A promotion test, a guarantee of performance or an automated decision about who should be promoted.
Benson, A., Li, D., & Shue, K. (2019). Promotions and the Peter Principle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4), 2085–2134.
Schleu, J. E., & Hüffmeier, J. (2021). Simply the best? A systematic literature review on the predictive validity of employee performance for leader performance. Human Resource Management Review, 31(2), 100777.
Van Iddekinge, C. H., Arnold, J. D., Frieder, R. E., & Roth, P. L. (2019). A meta-analysis of the criterion-related validity of prehire work experience. Personnel Psychology.
Sackett, P. R., Zhang, C., Berry, C. M., & Lievens, F. (2022). Revisiting meta-analytic estimates of validity in personnel selection. Journal of Applied Psychology.
Hermelin, E., Lievens, F., & Robertson, I. T. (2007). The validity of assessment centres for the prediction of supervisory performance ratings: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Selection and Assessment.
Blume, B. D., Ford, J. K., Baldwin, T. T., & Huang, J. L. (2010). Transfer of training: A meta-analytic review. Journal of Management, 36, 1065–1105.
Hughes, A. M., Zajac, S., Woods, A. L., & Salas, E. (2020). The role of work environment in training sustainment: A meta-analysis. Human Factors, 62, 166–183.
Stoutamire, D. (2026). Leadership Readiness as a Measurable Construct (SSRN 6903318) and The SHIFT Readiness Gap (SSRN 6545619). BlackRidge working papers, not yet peer reviewed.
Your next promotion decision
Promotion readiness is a judgment about the next role, so promote on evidence that looks like the work ahead, not on past performance alone. Do that, and you give your best people a promotion they can win at.
We’ll help you think through the development it requires. A short reply from someone who read what you wrote, within two working days, whether you are a talent development lead, an HR business partner, or the sponsor of the move.
